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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.